Where can I afford to retire?
Free stress-test: 2,000 fat-tail simulated futures per country rank 10 countries by whether early retirement is affordable now, reachable by a specific year, or out of reach — local taxes and cost of living included.
Free, no signup, built for EU savers. Enter your age, portfolio, yearly savings, spending, and home country. For each of 10 countries the tool adjusts your budget to local prices (World Bank household-consumption price levels), applies that country's taxes on portfolio withdrawals — capital-gains regimes, Malta's minimum tax, wealth-type levies like the Dutch Box 3 deemed return — and runs 2,000 fat-tailed simulated futures to age 95. The verdict per country: affordable now (≥95% of futures survive), reachable by a specific year at your savings rate, or out of reach — plus the flip-point portfolio each country requires.
The 10 countries and their tax models
- Austria (cost level 0.78 vs US): 27.5% flat KESt on fund gains.
- Germany (cost level 0.76 vs US): 26.375% incl. Soli, ×70% after the 30% equity-fund exemption ≈ 18.5% on gains.
- Netherlands (cost level 0.80 vs US): No tax on actual gains — Box 3 taxes a deemed 6.00% return at 36% (≈2.16%/yr above the allowance, 2026).
- Portugal (cost level 0.60 vs US): 28% flat on securities and fund gains.
- Spain (cost level 0.64 vs US): Savings scale 19–30% (~21% effective); regional wealth tax, 0.3% above €700K pp as a mid case.
- Greece (cost level 0.60 vs US): UCITS fund gains exempt; dividends 5% — surprisingly favorable for ETF retirees.
- Cyprus (cost level 0.64 vs US): No CGT on securities; non-dom pays no tax on dividends/interest for 17 years (GESY levy 2.65%).
- Malta (cost level 0.63 vs US): Non-dom remittance basis: foreign capital gains tax-free; €5K/yr minimum tax above €35K income.
- Thailand (cost level 0.31 vs US): Remitted foreign gains taxable since 2024 (~10% effective). The 0%-tax LTR visa requires age 50+ and ~USD 80K/yr passive income - out of reach for most lean early retirees.
- Malaysia (cost level 0.32 vs US): Territorial: remittances exempt (through 2036); no CGT on foreign securities. MM2H Silver locks a USD 150K deposit (modeled as non-investable capital) plus an RM 600K property purchase.
Common questions
Where can I afford to retire early?
It depends on three things: your portfolio, your spending, and where you spend it. This tool adjusts your budget to each country's cost of living (World Bank data), applies that country's taxes on portfolio withdrawals, and runs 2,000 fat-tail Monte Carlo futures to age 95. The verdict per country: affordable now, reachable by a specific year at your savings rate, or out of reach.
How much do taxes change the answer?
Often more than cost of living. Greece and Portugal have nearly identical cost levels, but Greece exempts UCITS fund gains (≈5% effective) while Portugal taxes them at 28% — a six-figure difference in the portfolio you need. The Netherlands taxes a deemed return on your balance every year (Box 3), which compounds against you and makes it the most expensive place in this set to retire on investments.
What does "reachable in year X" mean?
For each country we find the flip-point: the smallest portfolio that survives to age 95 in at least 95% of simulated futures. If your portfolio is below it, we project your current savings rate forward at a conservative 4% real return and report the year you cross the line.
Does this work for US citizens?
No, deliberately. The US taxes citizens worldwide, which changes every country's result and depends on treaties and your account types. This tool models an EU citizen who relocates and becomes an ordinary tax resident of the destination. If you are a US citizen, treat the cost-of-living side as useful and the tax side as wrong.
How accurate is this for my real situation?
It is a stress-test, not advice. Cost of living is a national average — Lisbon is not Évora, Bangkok is not Chiang Mai — so replace the adjusted budget with a real local one before deciding anything. Tax models are simplified defaults with a confidence rating and an as-of date shown per country; regimes change, and special visas (Thailand LTR, Malaysia MM2H, Malta non-dom) can change the picture. Your numbers never leave your browser. Not financial or tax advice — verify with a local advisor before moving.