Should I take the new job?

Example result

Pre-loaded with illustrative variables — tweak any number and re-run with your own situation. In this example run (1,000 futures, fixed seed), Take the new job comes out ahead in 89% of simulated futures, with an expected edge of €31K; its net result ends below €0 in 0% of futures.

Where these numbers come from

• IAB (2023): of voluntary job switchers, 47% gain over 5%, about a quarter end up worse off
• Bertelsmann Stiftung (2025, SOEP): switchers in the same occupation earn +3.6%, and rate the new job 1.1 points (of 10) more satisfying
• Chadi & Hetschko (SOEP): the satisfaction boost after a switch is short-lived
• Destatis: nominal wages +4.2% in 2025 (raises in this scenario)
• Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Dec 2025): 0.59% of employees a month register unemployed; ALG I spells average 17–25 weeks
• Bundesagentur für Arbeit, job-duration report (2016): of the jobs that ended in 2014, 55% had lasted under a year (all reasons: quits, dismissals, contracts running out), while only 19% of running jobs were under a year old

Not sourced: The offer (+10%) and your current salary are placeholders for your own numbers. A new hire's higher layoff risk (3% vs 2% a year here) is an assumption. Jobs end far more often in their first year (BA), but that counts quits and expiring contracts too; we found no German figure for how often employers let new hires go.

Three steps. No PhD required.

1. Adjust the pre-loaded variables

   We've filled in realistic numbers for your situation. Change any value — your actual salary, your risk tolerance, your timeline.

2. Hit "Help me decide"

   The engine runs 1,000 simulated futures in under a second, accounting for uncertainty in every variable you entered.

3. See which choice wins

   A winner banner, a confidence score, and a sensitivity chart showing which variable matters most. Share the result or fork it with different assumptions.