Go freelance or stay employed?
Model day rates, client risk, holiday cost, pension gap, and income volatility. See whether independence is worth it — in expected value terms.
Example result
Pre-loaded with illustrative variables — tweak any number and re-run with your own situation. In this example run (1,000 futures, fixed seed), Stay employed comes out ahead in 87% of simulated futures, with an expected edge of €48K; its net result ends below €0 in 0% of futures.
Where these numbers come from
- freelancermap Freelancer-Kompass 2026 (n=620 IT freelancers): median €95/hour, monthly revenue around €6,000 full-time
- Freelancer-Kompass 2026: business costs €783/month; 24% had projects on fewer than 50 days last year
- Hans-Böckler-Stiftung Lohnspiegel (2025): software developers earn ~€5,260/month after 10 years
- StepStone Gehaltsreport 2026 (1.3M salary records), cross-check: IT occupations earn a median €66,750/year gross across all experience levels, close to the Lohnspiegel's ~€63K
- Social insurance rates and ceilings 2026 (krankenkassen.de)
- Techniker Krankenkasse 2026: self-employed pay both halves, 17.29% health + 4.2% care (childless)
Not sourced: Both sides are compared before income tax, which hits them similarly. Autonomy and security aren't scored: set your own wellbeing values. Revenue varies widely (a quarter of freelancers were busy on fewer than 50 days last year), which the ±€20K spread only roughly captures.
Three steps. No PhD required.
Adjust the pre-loaded variables
We've filled in realistic numbers for your situation. Change any value — your actual salary, your risk tolerance, your timeline.
Hit "Help me decide"
The engine runs 1,000 simulated futures in under a second, accounting for uncertainty in every variable you entered.
See which choice wins
A winner banner, a confidence score, and a sensitivity chart showing which variable matters most. Share the result or fork it with different assumptions.