Buy or rent?
Model house price appreciation, mortgage cost, opportunity cost of deposit, and rental inflation. Which choice wins over your time horizon?
Example result
Pre-loaded with illustrative variables — tweak any number and re-run with your own situation. In this example run (1,000 futures, fixed seed), Buy comes out ahead in 74% of simulated futures, with an expected edge of €43K; its net result ends below €0 in 86% of futures.
Where these numbers come from
- Bundesbank MFI statistics: 4.04% effective rate on new housing loans fixed for 10+ years (Aug 2026)
- Purchase costs: land transfer tax 3.5–6.5% by state, notary + land registry 1.5–2%, buyer's agent share typically 3.57% (VR Banken)
- Postbank Wohnatlas 2026 (HWWI): flats cost 24.4 years of net rent on average in 2025
- Destatis house price index: +82% from 2010 to 2025 (≈4.1%/year), with −8.5% in 2023
- Destatis: net rents +2.1% in 2025
- Upkeep: 1–1.5% of the building value a year (Interhyp)
- Bundesbank: 10-year Bund yield 3.64% (Sep 2026), the safe return on a deposit kept invested
Not sourced: House prices are assumed to grow 3% a year (between inflation, ~2.2%, and the 2010–2025 boom, ~4.1%), and the renter's deposit to earn 5% a year (between the Bund yield and long-run equities). Both decide the result: set your own. Both sides pay similar housing costs otherwise (both pay utilities, buyers also save through repayments).
Three steps. No PhD required.
Adjust the pre-loaded variables
We've filled in realistic numbers for your situation. Change any value — your actual salary, your risk tolerance, your timeline.
Hit "Help me decide"
The engine runs 1,000 simulated futures in under a second, accounting for uncertainty in every variable you entered.
See which choice wins
A winner banner, a confidence score, and a sensitivity chart showing which variable matters most. Share the result or fork it with different assumptions.