Think in probabilities.

Essays on making big life decisions with data — survivorship bias, expected value, and why your gut deserves a fact-check.

Make Your Decision Twice: Once Forward, Once From the Future #lifeoddsDecision Making

Make Your Decision Twice: Once Forward, Once From the Future

Imagine your plan has already failed, then explain why. This one framing shift surfaces 30% more risks than asking "what could go wrong?"

19 July 2026 The Variable That Flips Most Job-Change Decisions Isn't Salary #lifeoddsDecision Making

The Variable That Flips Most Job-Change Decisions Isn't Salary

The data says liquid savings, not salary, decides most job changes. Workers with cash reserves switch jobs 35% more often — same offer, same market.

19 July 2026 When You Can't Afford to Lose, Stop Maximizing Expected Value #lifeoddsDecision Making

When You Can't Afford to Lose, Stop Maximizing Expected Value

Expected value is the wrong math when losing means game over. How risk of ruin, bet sizing, and the barbell strategy actually work for big life decisions.

18 July 2026 The Regret Test Is Not a Decision Tool #lifeoddsCareer

The Regret Test Is Not a Decision Tool

The regret minimization framework sounds rigorous. It isn’t. Here’s why imagining yourself at 80 is not a substitute for calculating expected value.

15 July 2026 Passion Doesn't Pay. Skills Do. #lifeoddsCareer

Passion Doesn't Pay. Skills Do.

Hiring managers reward passion signals in interviews — but passion doesn’t predict salary. Research shows what actually drives earnings over a career.

10 July 2026 Why Successful People Give Terrible Career Advice #lifeoddsCareer

Why Successful People Give Terrible Career Advice

Survivorship bias means the people giving career advice are the worst people to ask. Here’s what their success actually proves — and what it doesn’t.

5 July 2026 Your Safe Choice Is Riskier Than You Think #lifeoddsCareer

Your Safe Choice Is Riskier Than You Think

The choice you don’t make has a cost too. Here’s why staying in your current job is not the risk-free option your brain keeps telling you it is.

30 June 2026 What Monte Carlo Simulation Actually Is — And Why It Beats Your Spreadsheet #lifeoddsDecision Making

What Monte Carlo Simulation Actually Is — And Why It Beats Your Spreadsheet

A spreadsheet gives you one number. That number is wrong. Here’s what Monte Carlo actually does — and why probability distributions beat point estimates.

23 June 2026